Estimates of the number of persons affected by the marriage penalty remain subject to uncertainty due to the insufficient statistical basis for direct federal tax. An external expert recommends a broader data basis for the Federal Tax Administration (FTA). On 7 November 2018, the Federal Council provided information on the findings of the expert report.
Background according to the media release of 8 November 2018: On 15 June 2018, the Federal Department of Finance (FDF) announced that considerably more two-earner couples are affected by the marriage penalty for direct federal tax than was originally assumed. A new estimation method applied by the FTA in spring 2018 had revealed that the marriage penalty does not affect 80,000 two-earner couples, as previously assumed, but around 450,000. The Federal Council had subsequently commissioned an expert opinion on the estimation method and the statistical material used by the FTA.
In his report, the expert commissioned by the Federal Council concluded that the estimation method used by the FTA was correct, but criticised the fact that the estimate was based on an inadequate statistical foundation. According to the expert's assessment, the FTA should have all elements of the tax return relevant for the assessment of direct federal tax at its disposal, including the income and deductions of individual taxpayers. This data is collected by the cantonal assessment authorities and the Federal Council will now examine to what extent this data can be made available to the FTA.
The expert opinion or the final report "External Review of the Estimation Methods and Statistical Material of the FTA" is available here.
